27 Dec State of China’s Auto Market – December 2025
Written by Bill Russo, Founder & CEO of Automobility Ltd.
Before diving into the results through November for China’s auto market, I’m pleased to share the fifth episode of our Auto Insider podcast—continuing our series of candid, in-depth conversations with industry leaders operating at the center of the global mobility transformation.
In Episode 5 of Auto Insider, I sit down with Sng Yih, President of Autoliv China, for a no-nonsense conversation about “Safety Without Borders: How Autoliv Is Driving Scaled Collaboration in the Smart Mobility Era.”In this episode we discuss how the world’s leading automotive safety supplier is adapting to China’s unique innovation environment. Our conversation examines how China’s speed, scale, and software-centric vehicle architectures are reshaping the safety roadmap—from passive safety and ADAS integration to the evolving role of suppliers in a software-defined, cost-compressed market. We also discuss what lessons from China’s safety ecosystem are increasingly relevant for global OEMs and suppliers alike. This is a timely conversation on how safety leadership is being redefined in the era of intelligent, connected vehicles.
Check out prior episodes and subscribe on our Auto Insider YouTube channel (or wherever you get your podcasts):
https://www.youtube.com/@AutomobilityLtd/podcasts
Key Headlines Summary through November 2025
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China’s auto market continues to expand at scale, with shipments up approximately 11–12 percent year over year, exceeding prior cyclical peaks as growth increasingly normalizes. -
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) remain the growth engine, up ~33 percent YoY, reaching 47–49 percent of production and a record ~59 percent PV share in November. -
2025 year-to-date NEV volumes already surpassing full-year 2024, supported by continued Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) substitution and expanding export demand. -
Exports deliver incremental growth, up 18.7 percent YoY, with NEVs rising to ~36 percent of export mix. -
Chinese brands consolidate dominance, holding ~70 percent PV share and capturing nearly all net market growth. -
Tesla remains range-bound in China, with soft domestic demand and weaker exports masking the absence of secular growth.
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Smart EV leadership is shifting, as HIMA and Xiaomi gain share, Leapmotor scales, and first-generation EV startups lose momentum.
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“Glocalization” accelerates, with Chinese OEMs fast-tracking overseas manufacturing to mitigate tariff risk.
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Value orientation persists, with used-car sales slightly above last year’s record but growth moderating in a maturing market.
China Auto Volumes Remain Elevated as Growth Moderates
Through the first eleven months of 2025, China’s auto industry has entered a new peak-shipment era, with total ex-factory volumes rising 11.4 percent year on year and clearly surpassing the prior 2017 cycle peak. Total passenger and commercial vehicle shipments reached approximately 31.1 million units, confirming that the market has structurally reset at a higher level rather than merely rebounding cyclically. Growth is increasingly export-supported, with close to 20 percent of Made-in-China vehicles now sold overseas, reinforcing China’s role as a global automotive supply hub.
Electrification continues to reshape the volume mix. NEV shipments grew 31.2 percent year on year, adding roughly 3.5 million units and accounting for essentially all net market growth. In contrast, ICE shipments declined by 2.0 percent, representing a contraction of approximately 330,000 units, even as total industry volumes expanded. This divergence underscores a permanent structural shift: NEVs are now the primary volume growth engine, while ICE demand continues to erode within an overall expanding market.
November shipments totaled ~3.43 million units, including 3.04 million passenger vehicles and 0.39 million commercial vehicles, confirming sustained high-volume momentum even as year-on-year growth moderated against strong prior-year comparables.
As the year draws to a close, the industry has clearly transitioned from acceleration to volume stabilization at historically elevated levels, reinforcing confidence that 2025 will finish well above prior cycle peaks. This resilience continues to be supported by NEV-led volume contribution and steady export demand for Made-in-China vehicles.
Demand conditions remain supportive but increasingly price-led. Policy continuity, extended trade-in incentives, and aggressive OEM pricing are sustaining retail throughput—particularly in passenger vehicles—while signaling a market that is maturing from rapid expansion toward scale-driven normalization.
Record Exports Signal China’s Auto Industry Is Going Global at Scale
China’s export engine continues to gather momentum, with November marking a third consecutive record month for vehicle exports and reinforcing exports as a critical pillar of 2025’s double-digit shipment growth. Strong NEV competitiveness, combined with resilient global demand for Made-in-China vehicles, has lifted exports to 728,000 units in November, pushing year-to-date exports up 18.7 percent year on year, or roughly one million incremental units versus 2024. As export penetration rises and overseas markets absorb an increasing share of China’s output, the global impact is becoming impossible to ignore. In other words, what happens in China will not stay in China—unlike Vegas, and the effects of China’s scale, pricing, and electrification leadership are now being felt well beyond its domestic market.
China’s overseas vehicle shipments extended their record pace through November, with Made-in-China exports up 18.7 percent year on year in the first eleven months of 2025. Total export volumes reached approximately 6.34 million units, already exceeding the full-year 2024 total and reinforcing exports as a structural growth pillar rather than a cyclical outlet for excess capacity.
The export mix continues to shift decisively toward electrification. NEVs now account for 36.5 percent of total exports, reaching 2.31 million units and already surpassing full-year 2024 NEV export volumes, even as ICE vehicles still dominate absolute export scale. This underscores the growing competitiveness of China’s electrified platforms in global markets.
Among exporters, Chery leads in total export volume, while BYD stands out as the primary growth driver, adding approximately 558,000 incremental units year on year and continuing to expand its global footprint on the back of NEV demand. Other major Chinese OEMs—including SAIC, Chang’an, and Geely—posted steady gains. By contrast, Tesla’s exports declined, falling to 223,000 units (–26,000 year on year) and reducing its share to 3.5 percent, reflecting softer global demand for Made-in-China Teslas amid intensifying competition.
Through the first ten months of 2025, Mexico remained the largest destination for Made-in-China vehicle exports, with volumes rising 25 percent year on year, reinforcing its role as a critical gateway market. Export growth continues to broaden across regions, with particularly strong momentum in the United Arab Emirates (+58 percent), Australia (+68 percent), and the Philippines (+58 percent), underscoring the growing pull from the Middle East, Oceania, and Southeast Asia. Kazakhstan once again stands out as the fastest-growing market, with shipments up 76 percent, highlighting Central Asia’s rising importance in China’s export map.
Russia remains the clear outlier, with imports down 53 percent year on year, acting as the lone structural drag among China’s top export destinations. The decline reflects the ongoing impact of sharply higher vehicle recycling fees, which now function as tariff-like barriers and have significantly increased the landed cost of imported vehicles. The contrast between Russia and most other markets illustrates how China’s export growth is increasingly shaped not by demand constraints, but by divergent regulatory and policy regimes as Chinese OEMs expand globally.
China’s Auto Market Is Splitting: NEVs Surge, ICE Contracts
China’s New Energy Vehicle market continued its rapid expansion through November, reinforcing that electrification remains firmly midway along an S-curve trajectory rather than approaching saturation. NEV shipments reached approximately 14.78 million units in the first eleven months of 2025, already well above the full-year 2024 total and underscoring the structural scale China has achieved in electrified vehicles. This figure includes more than 2.3 million Made-in-China NEVs exported, highlighting the growing global pull for China’s electric platforms.
The composition of NEV growth continues to favor pure electrics. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) shipments climbed to roughly 9.52 million units, consolidating BEVs as the dominant growth driver, while PHEV volumes reached about 5.26 million units. Although PHEVs remain an important bridge technology, their share has stabilized as improving charging infrastructure, declining battery costs, and broader model availability accelerate the shift toward full electric solutions.
Importantly, while questions persist globally about the sustainability of electrification outside China, the data make clear that China is now the primary force keeping global electrification on an expansion path. As several foreign OEMs retrench—slowing EV investment and prioritizing short-term profitability within legacy ICE portfolios—China’s scale, cost compression, and export momentum are increasingly carrying the burden of sustaining international EV adoption. With NEVs accounting for approximately 47.5 percent of total vehicle shipments and exceeding 50 percent penetration domestically, China is no longer just leading the transition—it is anchoring its viability at a global level.
China’s electrification transition advanced further in November, with year-on-year softness driven primarily by declining ICE volumes, even as BEV and PHEV shipments reached new record highs. This divergence underscores a critical nuance in the current data: headline growth moderation is not a signal of weakening electrification momentum, but rather the result of continued ICE contraction within an expanding NEV base.
Electrification continues to drive mix gains, lifting NEV share to 53.2 percent of total vehicle shipments in November, the highest level on record. Both BEVs and PHEVs contributed to this increase, with pure electrics maintaining their role as the primary growth engine while PHEVs provided incremental volume support amid pricing pressure and infrastructure constraints in certain segments.
The export mix further reinforces this bifurcation. ICE vehicles still account for a larger share of exports, representing 24.7 percent of total ICE shipments, while NEV exports comprise 15.7 percent of total NEV volumes. As domestic penetration climbs and export channels expand, the data point to a market where electrification is structurally displacing ICE at home, even as ICE continues to play a transitional role in select overseas markets.
China’s Domestic Auto Market Has Crossed Over—And There’s No Going Back
Domestic vehicle sales continued to expand in 2025, rising 8.6 percent year on year through the first eleven months, though growth has now slipped below double digits as the market matures. Crucially, all net demand continues to come from NEVs, which grew 23.2 percent, while ICE sales declined a further 2.7 percent, making it clear that any softness in the data is entirely combustion-engine driven.
Even with this recovery, it is increasingly unlikely that China’s domestic market will reclaim the 2017 sales peak. That shortfall is not a sign of weakness so much as a structural shift in where growth now comes from. Domestic demand has stabilized at a lower ICE baseline, while exports have become the release valve that allows China’s auto industry to operate at scale and recapture cyclical momentum.
The takeaway is straightforward, if slightly uncomfortable for traditionalists: electrification is doing all the work, and ICE is quietly melting away. NEVs are no longer the growth story within China—they are the market.
November marked a clear new inflection point in China’s domestic passenger vehicle market, with NEVs reaching a record ~59 percent share of sales and further widening the gap over ICE vehicles. NEVs have now consistently outsold ICE models since March, and the separation continues to grow as electrified offerings expand in both price coverage and segment depth. What is increasingly evident in the data is that this is no longer a close contest or a cyclical swing in consumer preference—the market has decisively crossed over. At this point, the gap between NEVs and ICE is widening so fast that ICE is no longer chasing the leader; it is mostly trying to stay visible in the rear-view mirror.
BYD remains firmly in first place, with roughly 27 percent market share, but the narrative is no longer about dominance alone—it is about defending that position as competition intensifies. BYD still anchors the market with unmatched scale and a deep bench of high-volume nameplates, yet incremental share erosion signals that leadership now comes with rising competitive and margin pressure. In short, BYD is still running the race—but the pack behind it is getting faster.
What is genuinely new—and strategically significant—is the rise of smartphone companies as serious NEV challengers. HIMA and Xiaomi have moved decisively into the top tier, not by playing the traditional auto game, but by redefining value through software, ecosystems, and user experience. Their momentum reinforces a broader shift underway in China’s NEV market: vehicles are increasingly sold less as mechanical products and more as connected platforms, where brand affinity, OS integration, and digital services matter as much as horsepower or range.
The market remains highly concentrated, with the top six players controlling roughly 59 percent of NEV sales and the top ten approaching 80 percent, leaving limited oxygen for second-tier brands. Tesla remains the only foreign OEM in the top ten, holding about 4.6 percent share, but its position is increasingly defensive as domestic competitors iterate at a pace that looks less like an automotive product cycle and more like a smartphone launch calendar. The takeaway is clear: China’s NEV disruption is no longer just about electrification—it is about who owns the user, the software layer, and the ecosystem. And on that front, the smartphone players have arrived fully charged.
China’s passenger vehicle market crossed a decisive threshold in 2025, with NEV sales extending their lead over ICE through November and confirming that electrification is no longer a parallel track, but the primary growth lane. Through the first eleven months of the year, NEV passenger vehicle sales reached 11.47 million units, surpassing 10.01 million ICE vehicles. This crossover marks more than a cyclical shift in demand; it reflects a structural reordering of competitiveness in the world’s largest auto market.
There is an important, and often underappreciated, dimension to this transition. China’s leading NEV players—BYD, Geely, SAIC, and Chang’an—are not new entrants, but legacy automakers that successfully reinvented themselves. Their trajectory demonstrates that adaptation is possible, though neither easy nor without cost. By contrast, several legacy global OEMs now face sustained erosion in ICE volumes, a reality that warrants deeper analysis. Decades of brand equity, dealer networks, and engineering excellence are being challenged by a market that has moved faster than most global planning cycles anticipated.
The competitive landscape underscores the difficulty of navigating this transition. Only four OEMs overlap between the ICE and NEV top-10 rankings, highlighting a bifurcation of competitive “lanes.” NEV leadership is now firmly dominated by Chinese brands, while ICE leadership remains anchored by global incumbents such as Volkswagen and Toyota—though with declining strategic leverage. At the same time, EV startups such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, and Xpeng are confronting the reality that scale, not just differentiation, is becoming the defining factor for survival.
This raises a broader strategic question for global automakers: is managed retreat from China a prudent risk-reduction strategy, or a premature surrender of long-term relevance, particularly as Made-in-China vehicles increasingly shape global markets? As Chinese OEMs export not only vehicles but platforms, software, and cost structures, disengaging from China may limit exposure to near-term volatility—but at the expense of learning, scale, and influence in the next phase of global automotive competition. In that sense, China’s crossover moment is not just a local inflection point; it is a signal with global implications that legacy players can no longer afford to ignore.
Note that only 4 brands (highlighted in red) are ranked as top 10 players for both ICE and NEV, and they are all Chinese: Geely, Chery, Chang’an and SAIC.
Winning the Wrong Segment Is Still Losing
Foreign automakers continue to lose ground in China’s passenger vehicle market, with global brands now down a cumulative 34 percentage points of share since 2020. Through the first eleven months of 2025, local Chinese OEMs controlled approximately 70 percent of PV shipments, up sharply from just over one-third five years ago. Importantly, Chinese brands captured essentially all year-over-year market growth, while foreign OEMs, in aggregate, remained in structural decline.
German and Japanese OEMs continue to contract, with volumes down 8.2 percent and 3.5 percent year on year, respectively, reflecting ongoing challenges in aligning product portfolios with China’s NEV-led demand shift. U.S. brands posted modest growth (+2.8 percent), but this resilience is limited in scale and insufficient to offset broader share erosion. These pockets of stability highlight tactical competitiveness in select segments, but not a reversal of the underlying trend.
The takeaway is less about cyclical weakness and more about structural realignment. China’s PV market has evolved faster than most global OEM operating models, favoring players with deep NEV portfolios, rapid iteration cycles, and cost structures designed for scale. For foreign automakers, the challenge is no longer simply how to regain lost share—but whether incremental improvements can meaningfully counter a market that now structurally favors local champions.
The 2025 leaderboard underscores how far—and how fast—China’s passenger vehicle market has moved. Geely has firmly overtaken Volkswagen to secure the number-two position, trailing only BYD in total sales. This is not a momentary reshuffle but a structural shift. Geely’s strength lies in its portfolio balance: while its ICE volumes remain resilient, NEV sales surged nearly 90 percent year on year, allowing the company to grow even as the overall market moderates. Volkswagen, by contrast, remains heavily exposed to ICE contraction, with declining ICE volumes and minimal NEV contribution, leaving it squeezed in a market where electrification is the only remaining ticket to growth.
A closer look at relative movements reveals several telling patterns. BYD’s leadership remains intact, even as growth softens in percentage terms—a natural outcome of scale rather than weakening competitiveness. Toyota stands out as one of the few global OEMs delivering positive total growth, supported by strong NEV growth off a small base, while most other foreign brands continue to face a double headwind: declining ICE sales and insufficient NEV offset. Tesla remains under pressure, with NEV volumes down year on year and total sales sliding, a reminder that early leadership in EVs does not guarantee immunity in China’s hyper-competitive market.
Across the top 15, the arithmetic is increasingly unforgiving. Domestic OEMs dominate NEV growth, while global brands cluster on the wrong side of the ledger, relying on shrinking ICE franchises to defend share. The result is a leaderboard where Chinese players win on growth, mix, and momentum—while foreign OEMs are left competing for relevance in a segment the market is actively exiting. It is a tough way to learn that in China’s auto market, being “less bad” in ICE is no longer a viable strategy—just a slower way to lose.
Conclusion
This month’s data reinforces a reality that is now difficult to dispute: China’s auto market has entered a structurally different phase, one defined by sustained scale, electrification-led growth, and an increasingly outward-facing global footprint. What once appeared radical is now routine. NEVs dominate incremental demand, exports anchor cyclical recovery, and domestic OEMs set the competitive tempo across both new and legacy powertrains.
Crucially, the story is no longer just about disruption—it is about reordering. China has crossed multiple thresholds at once: NEVs have overtaken ICE at home, domestic brands have consolidated control of the market, and Made-in-China vehicles are reshaping competitive dynamics far beyond China’s borders. For global automakers, this creates a far more complex challenge than simple market volatility. Strategic hesitation, partial retreat, or incremental adaptation now carry long-term consequences for relevance, learning, and scale.
As we move into year-end, the message is clear. China’s auto market is not reverting to an earlier equilibrium, nor is it waiting for others to catch up. It is setting the terms of competition—technologically, economically, and increasingly geopolitically. Those engaging with China as a core pillar of their global strategy still have choices to make. Those stepping back may find that re-entry comes at a much higher cost.
We will continue to track these shifts closely, not as observers of a distant market, but because what is happening in China is now inseparable from the future of the global auto industry.
Until next month.
AmCham Shanghai State of China Auto Market Monthly Webinar [December 18]
Join us on Thursday, December 18, from 9:00 am – 10:15 am China time for the monthly AmCham Shanghai State of China Auto Market Monthly Webinar, where we will review the latest market results through November 2025 and highlight recent news from the world’s largest and most progressive automotive market.
Webinar | State of China Auto Market Monthly Briefing (December)
CoMotion GLOBAL – Riyadh [December 7-9]
The inaugural CoMotion GLOBAL concluded this past week in Riyadh, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of the global mobility dialogue. Positioned at the crossroads of Asia, the Middle East, Europe, North America, and the Global South, the event brought together senior leaders from government, industry, finance, and technology to examine how mobility systems are being reshaped by electrification, autonomy, AI, and infrastructure convergence. Strong local backing and alignment with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reinforced Riyadh’s ambition to serve as a global platform for next-generation mobility innovation.
A defining feature of this year’s event was the visible and growing presence of Chinese mobility companies, several of which were introduced to CoMotion through Automobility. Participants included Geely Auto, EHang, and autonomous-driving and logistics specialists QCraft and Neolix, underscoring China’s expanding role not only as a manufacturing base, but as a source of systems-level innovation across passenger vehicles, AVs, and aerial mobility.
During the program, Bill Russo, Founder & Chairman of Automobility Ltd, contributed to two panels focused on how China’s mobility model is influencing global trajectories:
Panel 1: China’s Mobility Playbook and Its Global Implications
This session examined whether mobility innovation is diverging into distinct Eastern and Western pathways, or whether deeper forms of convergence are emerging beneath the surface. Discussion centered on China’s system-level approach, cost compression, software-defined vehicles, and ecosystem orchestration—contrasted with Western, product-centric and margin-driven models. The panel emphasized that China’s influence is increasingly structural rather than cyclical, with implications for OEMs, suppliers, and policymakers worldwide.
Moderated by:Bill Russo, Founder & CEO, Automobility Ltd
Panelists:
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Lola Woetzel, Founder & Managing Partner, Global6 Limited -
Tian Jinjun, CEO, GEELY Auto Middle East -
Dr. Feilong Liu, CEO, HyperView
This discussion shed light on why China’s model is widely misunderstood—yet impossible to ignore. As global mobility systems transform, understanding China’s approach is no longer optional. It’s essential.
Video: https://youtu.be/trohNTbfLX0?si=J_PVLOxlsrWwakzR
Panel 2: East Meets West – Is the Global Mobility Landscape Splitting?
This panel brought together deep perspectives on how China’s scale-driven innovation engine contrasts with Western models built around standards, safety, and long-horizon resilience.
Moderated by: Dr. Jinhua Zhao from MIT
Panelists:
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Chris Thomas Managing Partner & Founder, Assembly Ventures -
Bill Russo, Founder & CEO, Automobility Ltd
We explored:
🚀 China’s industrial flywheel and accelerated innovation clock-speed
🔐 Data governance, IP protection, and capital-flow frictions
🔌 The role of digital ecosystems and software-defined mobility
🌍 Where East–West collaboration is possible—and where competition will intensify
The discussion was vigorous, candid, and forward-looking. The mobility transition is no longer regional. It is global, interconnected, and shaped by differing models of innovation, affordability, and market deployment. Understanding both systems is essential for leaders navigating this inflection point.
🔗 Panel recording:
Video: https://youtu.be/nmBZsOVvtDI?si=WVjusZyn7umX9TVW
Across both panels, the conversation consistently returned to one conclusion: China is no longer a reference market—it is a rule-setter, and engagement with Chinese players is becoming a prerequisite for relevance in the next phase of global mobility.
CoMotion GLOBAL Riyadh delivered on its promise as an East-meets-West forum, and the level of engagement around China-related themes reflected a growing recognition that the future of mobility will be shaped not by isolated regional models, but by how effectively these models intersect.
For more on the event:
🔗 CoMotion GLOBAL: https://comotionglobal.com/
AUTO INSIDER PODCAST
Auto Insider Podcast: Episodes #1 – #4
🎙️ Catch Up on the First 3 Episodes of the Auto Insider Podcast hosted by Bill Russo. Insights from the front lines of China’s mobility transformation — where speed, scale, and strategy are redefining global competition.
🌏 Episode #4: Leapmotor’s Global Leap — A New Paradigm for Global EV Collaboration with Michael Wu, Co-President, Leapmotor
🚗 Episode #3: Competing at China Speed: A Tier-1 Perspective from Magna with Zhen Wu, President of Magna China
🦋 Episode #2: The Butterfly Effect—How China’s Auto Shift is Reshaping the World with Dr. Xiaozhi Liu, Founder and CEO of ASL Automotive, Former CEO of Fuyao Glass
🔧 Episode #1: Smart EVs and the Smart Tier 0.5 Supply Chain with Jack Cheng , Co-Founder of NIO and CEO of M-Mobility
We’re just getting started — more conversations coming soon with the visionaries shaping the future of mobility.
AUTOMOBILITY IN THE MEDIA
The Rise of Chinese Automakers
Car and Driver, October 26
🚗 Reflecting on Car and Driver Magazine’s feature on the rise of Chinese automakers: domestic brands now outsell foreign ones thanks to smart industrial policies, joint ventures and EV leadership.
In the piece I noted: “In China, policy, capital, and companies move in lockstep.” That synergy lets companies integrate new tech fast and undercut competitors.
Source: https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a69123018/the-rise-of-chinese-automakers/
China’s $143B Push to Rewire the Global EV Industry
Rest of World, October 29
Chinese EV and battery makers — led by BYD and CATL — are accelerating their “go global” strategy, investing a staggering $143 billion since 2014 to secure the full EV value chain 🌍🔋
As Western trade barriers rise, these companies are shifting focus from Europe to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, building plants, refining critical minerals, and setting up local supply chains.
“China’s outward investment in the EV ecosystem reflects a deliberate ‘go global’ strategy to secure its full value chain, from raw materials to finished vehicles, as geopolitical frictions and market access barriers rise.” — Bill Russo, Founder & CEO, Automobility Ltd
Even if only part of these projects are completed, one thing is clear: China is methodically rewiring the global EV supply chain around its industrial and geopolitical interests.
🔗 Read the full story here
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-ev-investment-global-expansion/
BYD’s Wild Ambitions Abroad
Le Monde, November 7
🔋 BYD’s Global Ambitions Take Center Stage
In its Zhengzhou factory, BYD showcased not just its cars but its growing technological and manufacturing prowess. As the Chinese market matures, BYD is accelerating its global expansion — from Europe to Latin America and Southeast Asia — supported by its unique vertical integration and scale.
BYD now produces 70% of its components in-house, including batteries and semiconductors, giving it unmatched cost and innovation advantages.
My quote:
“China’s BYD is positioning itself not just as a carmaker, but as a global mobility powerhouse — vertically integrated, fast-moving, and increasingly aspirational.”
With overseas plants rising in Hungary, Thailand, and Brazil, and exports tripling year-on-year, BYD’s “Build Your Dreams” vision is rapidly becoming a global reality.
📈 Key Takeaways
->BYD sold 3.6 million vehicles in 2024, including 240,000 exported — a threefold increase.
-> Target: 50% of sales from overseas markets by 2030.
-> New premium sub-brands like Yangwang and Fangchengbao are taking aim at Tesla, Mercedes, and BMW.
How the US auto industry looks at beating the Chinese without becoming them
Greater Milwaukee Today, November 10
🚗 How the U.S. auto industry can compete with China without becoming China 🇺🇸
China’s carmakers, buoyed by decades of coordinated policy and generous subsidies, have turned EVs into an “existential threat” for Detroit’s giants. Their long‑term vision (think “Made in China 2025”) created consistent direction and built supply chains that now churn out affordable EVs and hybrids.
Yet America’s legacy brands bring strengths that China doesn’t: established brands, deep innovation pipelines and a skilled workforce. Ford’s Jim Farley says getting costs close to Chinese levels with new EV production techniques is essential if the U.S. is to stay competitive.
🔑 Bill Russo’s take: The CEO of Automobility Ltd. notes that China’s steady industrial policy contrasts sharply with Washington’s swings between administrations. He argues that the U.S. must “reimagine America as the sustainable, ethical and people‑centric mobility problem solver,” not just chase hyper‑competitive dominance. That vision would counter China’s race‑to‑the‑bottom approach and prevent the burnout that comes from relentless price wars.
Ultimately, beating China doesn’t mean becoming China. It means harnessing America’s strengths—innovation, ethics and people‑centric design—to shape the next era of mobility.
🔋🌱 Let’s drive towards a future that balances competition with sustainability and values.
China’s diesel trucks are shifting to electric. That could change global LNG and diesel demand
The Associated Press, November 19
🚛⚡ China’s Electric Truck Push
China isn’t just the world’s biggest car exporter — it’s moving fast into electric trucks. Stricter emissions rules will make it nearly impossible to rely solely on fossil‑fuel fleets, and LNG trucks only marginally cut emissions.
As I pointed out in The Associated Press article: “Chinese automakers have kept costs down and sped up truck manufacturing while ensuring different parts work seamlessly together with in‑house production of most key components, from batteries to motors and electronics”. China’s hyperactive delivery industry is already a proving ground for these EV trucks.
Exports of Chinese heavy‑duty trucks (including EVs) to the Middle East and North Africa jumped ~73 % annually from 2021–23. The share of electric trucks is expected to rise, though charging infrastructure remains a challenge.
Xiaomi reaches EV profit in 19 months and beats Tesla’s timeline by years
Bloomberg News, November 19
🔗 Read the full article here:
Xiaomi Technology reaching EV profitability in just 19 months is a landmark moment for China’s fast-moving mobility ecosystem. ⚡🚗🇨🇳
Key Takeaways
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Profitability in less than half the time it took Tesla. -
Massive existing user base = ultra-low customer acquisition cost. -
Single-model strategy, tight supply chain, and software-first design drove efficiency. -
MiOS positions the car as part of a connected smart-device ecosystem.
My quotes from the Bloomberg story:
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“Xiaomi entered the market with structural advantages most EV startups didn’t have.” -
“It leveraged an enormous user base and a trusted brand.” -
“The SU7 launch was treated like a scaled consumer-electronics rollout.”
China’s EV landscape continues to redefine global competition. 🌍🔋
Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar paycheck depends on the markets he’s losing
Rest of World, November 13
🚀 Honoured to share my thoughts in this Rest of World piece on Elon Musk’s ambitious trillion‑dollar compensation package. While Tesla has reshaped the EV landscape, the path to 20 million cars by 2035 is going to be incredibly challenging.
As I note in the article, Tesla’s growth has stalled outside the U.S., and it’s losing share in China and Europe where competition is intense. Chinese players like BYD are outpacing rivals because they localize production, supply chains and distribution. Unless Tesla changes its approach and commits to regional manufacturing, it will struggle to compete in these fast‑growing emerging markets.
The U.S. EV market still has room to expand, but the company’s future depends on how it navigates markets where Chinese automakers are already winning from Southeast Asia to Europe.
Read the full article here ➡️
Source: https://restofworld.org/2025/elon-musk-trillionaire/
Bill Russo’s rebuttal to The Atlantic article titled “China’s EV Market is Imploding”
The Atlantic, November 11
A Needed Rebuttal to Yet Another Sensational China EV Narrative
Last month, a reporter from The Atlantic contacted me with a very narrow question: a clarification on the “zero-mileage used car” practice.
I explained exactly how it works — a tactic used by a few financially stressed companies to artificially meet sales targets in a hyper-competitive environment.
What I was not asked:
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How widespread this practice is -
Whether it is systemic -
Whether it reflects the health of China’s EV industry
None of that made it into the story. Instead, an isolated behavior was extrapolated into the headline claim that “China’s EV Market Is Imploding.”
Let’s be clear:
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This is not evidence of an EV market collapse. -
It is not a widespread or structural issue. -
It is not an ‘implosion.’
It is an act of desperation by weaker players under pressure as the industry consolidates. In every large-scale transformation, not all companies survive.
The EV market isn’t what’s collapsing. The only thing imploding in China is the ICE market.
China’s EV industry continues to scale, innovate, export, and globalize at a pace unmatched anywhere in the world — and that success is precisely why competition is so fierce.
Turning a fringe behavior into a narrative of systemic failure is not analysis.
It’s just headline-driven storytelling.
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2025/11/china-electric-cars-market/684887/
About Bill Russo
Bill is a contributing author to the book Selling to China: Stories of Success, Failure, and Constant Change (2023), where he describes how China has become the most commercially innovative place to do business in the world’s auto industry – and why those hoping to compete globally must continue to be in the market.
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