22 Nov State of China’s Auto Market – November 2025
Written by Bill Russo, Founder & CEO of Automobility Ltd.
Before we jump into this month’s data market update, a quick heads-up: Auto Insider Episode #5 is about to drop, and you’ll want this one in your queue. I sat down with Sng Yih, President of Autoliv China, for a no-nonsense conversation about “Safety Without Borders: How Autoliv Is Driving Scaled Collaboration in the Smart Mobility Era.”
If you think safety systems are yesterday’s technology, this episode will change your mind — or at least make you realize why collaboration at scale is becoming the new competitive currency. Check out prior episodes and subscribe on our Auto Insider YouTube channel (or wherever you get your podcasts) so you’re ready when it goes live:
https://www.youtube.com/@AutomobilityLtd/podcasts

Key Headlines Summary through October 2025
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China’s auto market continues to show strong momentum, with shipments up roughly 12 percent YoY and on track to surpass the 2024 peak. - NEV shipments rose 33 percent YoY (+3.2 million units), bringing NEVs to ~49 percent of total production after outselling ICE passenger vehicles since March.
- NEV growth remains exceptionally strong, with 2025 YTD NEV shipments already exceeding the full-year 2024 total.
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Exports increased 15.7 percent YoY, supported by back-to-back record months in September and October (October reached 666,000 units). NEVs now account for 36 percent of exports, up from 22 percent a year ago. -
Chinese brands maintain clear domestic leadership, holding ~69 percent PV share and capturing all YoY growth as global brands continue to lose ground. - Tesla’s sales have declined, with lower domestic volumes and Giga Shanghai exports at multi-year lows, as the refreshed Model Y continues to face competitive pressure and the lineup ages.
- Smart EV competitive dynamics continue to shift, with HIMA and Xiaomi leading, Leapmotor sustaining strong momentum, and Li Auto slipping in monthly rankings.
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The shift from exports to “glocalization” is accelerating, as Chinese OEMs intensify overseas factory construction to mitigate tariff exposure. - Used-car sales rose 3.5 percent YoY, reflecting value-driven consumer behavior and further maturation of the secondary-market ecosystem.
October Vehicle Shipments Surge to 3.3M as China Heads for a Record Year
Through the first ten months of 2025, ex-factory shipments expanded by 12.4 percent, supported in part by the continued strength of China’s export engine. Roughly one in five vehicles produced in China is now sold in overseas markets, underscoring the structural shift toward globalized distribution. Total PV and CV shipments reached 27.7 million units, a level that keeps the industry well positioned to surpass the all-time high of 31.4 million units recorded in 2024.
Momentum remains concentrated in electrified products. NEV shipments increased 32.7 percent year-on-year, adding more than 3.19 million units to overall output. By contrast, ICE volumes contracted by 0.9 percent, a reduction of approximately 130,000 units, highlighting the ongoing substitution effect as the market pivots toward electrification and improved energy efficiency.

October shipments rose to 3.32 million units, the highest monthly level recorded in 2025, as both passenger and commercial vehicles continued to post strong year-over-year gains.
The sustained performance in the fourth quarter keeps the China auto sector firmly on track to exceed the 2024 all-time shipment peak, supported by continued NEV-led expansion and solid export contributions from Made-in-China production hubs.
Demand conditions remain favorable. Extended trade-in programs and intensified price competition are reinforcing retail activity, particularly within the passenger-vehicle market, and are helping to maintain the sector’s upward trajectory.

China’s Export Engine Hits New Highs as NEVs Surge Globally
China’s overseas vehicle shipments continue to accelerate, with Made-in-China exports climbing 15.7 percent year-on-year through the first ten months of 2025. At 5.62 million units, export volumes are approaching the full-year 2024 total, underscoring the strength of the outbound push.
A major shift in the export mix is now evident. NEVs represent nearly 36 percent of all exports, passing 2 million units—far exceeding last year’s total. This surge reflects the rapid alignment between China’s electrification capabilities and global market demand.
Among exporters, BYD is the clear standout, adding 457,000 incremental units over last year and accounting for the largest share of China’s NEV exports. Other major Chinese OEMs, including Chery, SAIC, and Chang’an, also posted solid gains, while Tesla’s export volumes contracted, dropping to 209,000 units and reducing its export share to 3.7 percent amid weakening global demand for Made-in-China Teslas.

Through the third quarter of 2025, Mexico remained the leading destination for Made-in-China vehicles, with imports rising 16 percent year-on-year. Several other key markets posted even stronger growth: the United Arab Emirates increased 59 percent, Australia jumped 68 percent, and the Philippines expanded 60 percent. Kazakhstan stood out as the fastest-growing market, with shipments up 75 percent, reinforcing Central Asia’s emergence as a meaningful new export corridor.
The lone major exception was Russia, where volumes fell 58 percent. The sharp decline reflects the impact of dramatically higher vehicle recycling fees, which now function as tariff-like barriers and have materially raised the cost of importing Chinese vehicles. This divergence highlights the uneven regulatory landscape Chinese automakers must navigate as they deepen their global expansion.

NEVs Take the Lead and BEVs Power the Surge
China’s New Energy Vehicle market set another historic benchmark in 2025. NEV shipments reached 12.94 million units in the first ten months alone, already surpassing the full-year 2024 record and underscoring the sector’s accelerating scale. This total includes approximately 2.0 million Made-in-China NEV exports, reflecting the technology’s rising global relevance.
The momentum is increasingly led by pure electrics. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) shipments climbed to 8.33 million units, marking a new all-time high and reinforcing BEVs as the primary engine of China’s electrification push. PHEVs, at 4.61 million units, continue to play a significant role but now represent a smaller proportion—about one-third—of total NEV output, as consumers shift steadily toward full-electric models amid a denser charging network and narrowing cost premiums.
With NEVs accounting for 46.7 percent of all vehicle shipments, China has entered a new phase where electrified powertrains are no longer an alternative but are rapidly becoming the mainstream choice across domestic and export markets.

China’s electrification shift reached a new inflection point in 2025, as NEV shipments (BEVs + PHEVs) consistently expanded relative to ICE throughout of the year. By October, NEVs accounted for over half of all vehicle shipments (51.6%), marking the highest monthly penetration on record and highlighting the structural transition underway in both production and consumer demand.
The data also underscores the exceptional strength of the pure electric segment: BEV shipments set new consecutive monthly records through September and October, supported by expanding model offerings, intensified price competition, and improving charging infrastructure. While PHEVs continue to contribute meaningfully, the acceleration in BEV volumes is now the dominant driver of NEV growth, signaling a decisive shift toward full electrification as the preferred technology pathway for both domestic buyers and export markets.

China’s Auto Market Is Booming Again — But Only If Your Cars Plug In
Domestic vehicle sales are heading upward again, posting a 10.4 percent increase through the first ten months of 2025 — reversing a seven-year period without growth. NEVs jumped 25.7 percent, adding virtually all of the new volume. Meanwhile, ICE sales slipped another 1 percent, a reminder that the traditional engine is now mostly… well, sputtering.
What this really shows is that China’s market has quietly crossed a historic threshold: electrified vehicles aren’t the future anymore — they’re the only part of the market that’s still growing. With policy support, trade-in subsidies, and aggressive pricing all pushing adoption faster, consumers are choosing NEVs at a pace that makes ICE look like old technology.
In short, China isn’t just leading the global shift to electrified mobility — it’s doing so with the kind of speed that leaves little room for nostalgia about the combustion era.

Even though BYD’s share has dipped to 28%, the company still dominates the leaderboard so thoroughly that most competitors would gladly take BYD’s “worst month” as their best year. With five of the top ten nameplates, BYD continues to treat the NEV market like its own personal showroom.
The broader landscape doesn’t exactly scream “open competition” either. The top six players control about 60% of the market, and the top ten nearly 79%, which means that for most brands outside this club, the addressable market is basically whatever crumbs fall off the Chinese NEV banquet table.
And speaking of outsiders, Tesla stands alone as the only foreign brand on the list — a polite reminder that China’s auto market is no longer the friendly exchange-student program it once was. With 4.5% share, Tesla is increasingly playing defense as its aging lineup tries to keep up with domestic rivals who release new models at the pace of smartphone refresh cycles.
Meanwhile, Geely has muscled its way to 12.4% share, powered by aggressive pricing and its wildly popular Xingyuan model. And as for BYD’s recent share slippage? Let’s just say any volume gains will be accompanied by profit margin pain.

It’s almost poetic—China’s top NEV champions, from BYD and Geely to SAIC and Chang’an, all started life in the ICE world, yet now seem perfectly comfortable pulling the plug on their own roots. Their success is a masterclass in industrial evolution: legacy automakers can adapt to electrification—provided they’re not clinging to nostalgia or century-old playbooks. Meanwhile, the once-disruptive startups—Leapmotor, Li Auto, Xpeng—are discovering that in the brutal math of the NEV market, scale is mandatory.
The market figures make this trend clear. By the third quarter, NEV PV sales had climbed to 10.15 million units, surpassing the 9.10 million ICE vehicles still sold—an historic turning point that establishes NEVs as the primary growth engine of the industry. Within this landscape, BYD’s 28% share, followed by Geely (12%), SAIC (8%), and Chang’an (7%), has pushed domestic brands into a position of sustained leadership.
This shift has competitive implications for traditional players. Li Auto’s weakening position illustrates how quickly advantages can evaporate in the Smart EV space, especially as PHEV demand cools. At the same time, the ICE segment—still dominated by Volkswagen (23%) and Toyota (13%)—is no longer the defensive stronghold it once was. Chinese brands such as Geely, Chery, and Chang’an have become credible challengers here as well, benefiting from the halo effect created by their NEV leadership.
In effect, China’s electrification success has reshaped consumer preference beyond the NEV segment. The rise of local champions in the new-energy era is now reinforcing their competitiveness in the legacy powertrain market, signaling a deeper, long-term reordering of brand strength in China’s automotive landscape.

Note that only 4 brands (highlighted in red) are ranked as top 10 players for both ICE and NEV, and they are all Chinese: Geely, Chery, Chang’an and SAIC.
Global Car Giants Wanted a Slice — Chinese Brands Took Most of the Cake
Foreign automakers continue their long, painful retreat from relevancy in China’s passenger vehicle market, having now surrendered 33 percentage points of share since 2020. By the third quarter of 2025, local brands seized 69.0% of shipments, nearly doubling their share in just five years and capturing every single unit of year-over-year growth. In other words, if the market got bigger, a Chinese brand grabbed it; if it shrank, a foreign brand likely lost it.
The picture for global players is bleak. German OEMs shrank another 6.8%, Japanese brands slipped 3.2%, and U.S. automakers managed a modest 2.5% uptick — though this rebound comes only because 2024 set the bar somewhere near the floor. Taken together, the numbers confirm what many already suspected: the world’s most competitive auto market has become a survival game that foreign OEMs are no longer built to win.

The 2025 leaderboard tells a story that would have been unthinkable a decade ago: Geely has now overtaken Volkswagen to claim the number-two position in China’s passenger vehicle market, trailing only BYD. This is not a statistical quirk — it reflects a fundamental shift in competitive power. Geely’s rise is built on a balanced and fast-refreshing ICE/NEV portfolio, enabling it to grow regardless of where the momentum sits in any given month. Volkswagen, by contrast, is increasingly disadvantaged by a lineup that still depends heavily on ICE models, leaving it struggling to keep pace in a market where electrification is now the baseline, not the bonus.
The broader pattern across the top 15 reinforces the same conclusion: every global brand on this chart shares the same Achilles’ heel — weak NEV performance. Whether it is VW, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, or the premium German marques, the story is consistently one of slow electrification, aging portfolios, and limited traction in the only segment that is expanding at scale. Their continued reliance on ICE sales may stabilize volumes in the short term, but it is rapidly turning into a structural liability, especially as Chinese competitors deliver NEV lineups that are broader, newer, faster-evolving, and more competitively priced.
Meanwhile, BYD continues to operate in its own orbit, extending its lead with an all-NEV lineup approaching 2.84 million units, while Geely’s ascent to 2.14 million units signals the arrival of a second domestic giant capable of matching — and beating — the long-standing foreign leaders. The cumulative effect is clear: China’s market is now defined by domestic brands that win in both ICE and NEV — and global brands that increasingly win in neither.

Conclusion
If there is one takeaway from this month’s data, it’s that China’s auto market has once again done exactly what we at Automobility have been predicting it would do for many years — and while we’d love to pretend we’re surprised, the truth is we ran out of “I told you so” energy sometime around 2021.
The transformation now unfolding is not a blip, not a cycle, and definitely not a temporary distortion. It is the new operating reality of the world’s largest and most competitive auto market. Those who adapt will thrive. Those who hesitate will be writing increasingly nostalgic annual reports.
As always, we’ll be here tracking each step of the transition — not because we enjoy having got it right (though it certainly doesn’t hurt), but because the industry’s future is being written in real time, and China continues to supply the pen, the paper, and most of the vehicles.
Until next month — stay charged.

China’s EV Drive: Reshaping the Global Auto Industry
Asia Pacific Business Magazine, July-September 2025
🚀 Proud to share my cover story in Asia Pacific Business Magazine (Jul–Sep 2025) on the global EV race — and why the road to the future runs through China. 🇨🇳⚡
Here are the key takeaways:
📊 China hits a tipping point: NEVs now outsell ICE at home; shipments +12% YTD, NEVs +38.5% (+~2.3M units vs. 2024).
🚗 Tesla: from catalyst → challenger: Built scale with Giga Shanghai, but 2025 volumes –6.3% and just 4.7% NEV share; exports fade as the lineup ages (Model Y still #2 nameplate).
🏆 BYD is the benchmark: 29.2% NEV share, ~1.9M units YTD, vertically integrated from batteries 🔋 to chips 💻. Added +315k NEV exports — ~42% of Made-in-China NEV exports.
🌱 Challengers rising: Geely >800k NEVs YTD; Xiaomi’s 🚘 SU7 shakes the market; “move fast & scale fast” defines China’s playbook.
🌍 Global push despite pushback: Exports +12.8% YTD; NEVs 35.5% of all Made-in-China exports. 🇲🇽 Mexico is #1 destination (+88% YoY).
⚠️ Headwinds are real: US 🇺🇸 100% tariffs, EU 🇪🇺 anti-subsidy probes, brand perception, service networks, data/security rules, and geopolitics.
🏭 Glocalization is the answer: Overseas plants, local partners 🤝, 12–18 month model cycles, AI-first cockpits 🧠🚘, and resilience forged in China’s “neijuan” price wars.
🔮 2030 outlook: China leads in supply chain and product cadence; Europe is the fiercest battlefield; US remains insulated—but still tied to China’s ecosystem.
💬 “There is no road to the future of electric mobility that does not travel through China.” — Bill Russo
🙏 Thanks to Asia Pacific Business Magazine for the platform. Happy to discuss implications for OEMs, suppliers, investors, and policymakers shaping the next chapter of global mobility.
AmCham Shanghai State of China Auto Market Monthly Webinar [November 25]
Join us on Thursday, November 25, from 9:00 am – 10:15 am China time for the monthly AmCham Shanghai State of China Auto Market Monthly Webinar, where we will review the latest market results through October 2025 and highlight recent news from the world’s largest and most progressive automotive market.
Webinar | State of China Auto Market Monthly Briefing (November)
AutoSens & InCabin China 2025 – Hefei [November 18–20]
We are proud to once again support AutoSens & InCabin China 2025, taking place November 18–20 in Hefei. This world-class gathering brings together over 350 senior leaders from OEMs, Tier 1s, semiconductor firms, and startups to explore the cutting edge of ADAS, validation, simulation, and intelligent cockpit innovation. With China at the forefront of mobility transformation, the event offers a unique platform for global experts to connect, share insights, and shape the future of in-cabin and perception technologies.
In support of the event, Automobility has contributed to the ADAS Guide, a comprehensive reference highlighting the evolution from traditional driver-assist systems to fully integrated intelligent driving platforms. The guide profiles leading players across the global ecosystem and underscores China’s emergence as the epicenter of innovation in intelligent driving.
Learn more and join us in Hefei:
ADAS to Smart Driving: Automobility at AutoSens & InCabin China
CoMotion GLOBAL – Riyadh [December 7-9]
We are excited to be part of the inaugural CoMotion GLOBAL, taking place December 7–9, 2025, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Positioned at the crossroads of Asia, the Middle East, Europe, North America, and the Global South, this flagship gathering brings together global leaders from government, industry, finance, and technology to shape the future of multi-modal, sustainable, and urban-first mobility. Backed by strong local support and aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, CoMotion GLOBAL will serve as the ultimate East-meets-West platform for unveiling innovations, forging strategic partnerships, and charting the next wave of mobility transformation.
At the intersection of AI, mobility, and infrastructure, the auto industry is undergoing its most profound shift yet.
Bill Russo, Founder & Chairman of Automobility Ltd, shares a clear vision for what comes next:
🗨️ “The defining innovation will be the infusion of real-time intelligence into vehicles and infrastructure—the move from connected to truly autonomous mobility. AI at the edge, combined with software-defined architectures and sensor fusion, will shift value creation from hardware to intelligent mobility services, accelerating new business models and partnerships across the ecosystem. This evolution will redefine how people and goods move, linking the digital economy more seamlessly with the physical world.”
Join Bill and hundreds of other voices shaping the future of mobility at CoMotion GLOBAL 2025
Register now until Dec. 7 and bring your colleague or plus-one for half the price! → https://www.comotionglobal.com/comotionglobal2025#ticket
Hosted by The Saudi Conventions & Exhibitions General Authority (SCEGA).
https://www.comotionglobal.com/

AUTO INSIDER PODCAST
Auto Insider Podcast: Episodes #1 – #4
🎙️ Catch Up on the First 3 Episodes of the Auto Insider Podcast hosted by Bill Russo. Insights from the front lines of China’s mobility transformation — where speed, scale, and strategy are redefining global competition.
🌏 Episode #4: Leapmotor’s Global Leap — A New Paradigm for Global EV Collaboration with Michael Wu, Co-President, Leapmotor
🚗 Episode #3: Competing at China Speed: A Tier-1 Perspective from Magna with Zhen Wu, President of Magna China
🦋 Episode #2: The Butterfly Effect—How China’s Auto Shift is Reshaping the World with Dr. Xiaozhi Liu, Founder and CEO of ASL Automotive, Former CEO of Fuyao Glass
🔧 Episode #1: Smart EVs and the Smart Tier 0.5 Supply Chain with Jack Cheng , Co-Founder of NIO and CEO of M-Mobility
We’re just getting started — more conversations coming soon with the visionaries shaping the future of mobility.

AUTOMOBILITY IN THE MEDIA
Unpacking the Real Barriers to EV and Autonomous Adoption
I recently joined Daniel Perez on the Future of Ground Transportation Podcast to discuss why the mobility revolution is unfolding differently in China and the West — and what this means for investors, policymakers, and innovators shaping the next decade of transportation.
🎯 Key Takeaways:
🌏 Less legacy, more innovation: China’s lack of entrenched systems has become its advantage — enabling faster commercialization of EVs, connected cars, and autonomous tech.
⚙️ Rust Belt vs. High-Tech: The U.S. still treats mobility as a manufacturing business, while China approaches it as part of the digital economy — blending hardware, software, and data.
🚗 Mobility-as-a-Service: The future isn’t about selling more cars — it’s about monetizing movement through platforms and ecosystems.
⚡ EV affordability and scale: China now produces 2 of every 3 EVs and 70% of global batteries, democratizing electric mobility faster than anyone else.
🛰️ Autonomy and air mobility: From AI trust to vertical takeoff vehicles, China’s consumers and policies are embracing the future at a faster pace.
💬 Key Quote:
“The mobility industry in the United States is a Rust Belt industry. The mobility industry in China is a high-tech industry. That’s the fundamental difference — and why the U.S. is falling behind.”
🎧 Watch the full conversation here:
The Rise of Chinese Automakers
Car and Driver, October 26
🚗Chinese automakers now outsell foreign ones thanks to smart industrial policies, joint ventures and EV leadership.
In the piece I noted: “In China, policy, capital, and companies move in lockstep.” That synergy lets companies integrate new tech fast and undercut competitors.
Read more in Car and Driver:
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a69123018/the-rise-of-chinese-automakers/
Do India’s EV policies discriminate against China? Experts weigh in
Rest of World, October 24
⚡️🌍 China has filed a WTO complaint over India’s EV incentives, underscoring a global shift: industrial policy, not free trade, is defining the next phase of the EV revolution.
As I noted in my comments to Rest of World: “China’s complaint has legal merit. India’s EV incentives clearly favor domestic content, which runs counter to WTO rules prohibiting such discrimination. This isn’t just a trade dispute — it’s another front in the global race to localize EV supply chains and reduce strategic dependence on China.”
The case is less about legal process and more about signaling — a reminder that the EV transition is as much about geopolitics as it is about technology.
🔗 Read the full article here:
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-wto-complaint-india-ev/
Horse power: Renault-Geely engine unit speeds up as EV shift stutters
Reuters. October 16
🚗 Horse Power: Renault–GEELY Engine Venture Rides the Hybrid Wave as the EV Transition Stutters
The latest Reuters feature explores how Horse Powertrain, the Renault–Geely joint venture, is accelerating while much of the EV world takes a breather. Once seen as a relic of the combustion era, the venture is now positioning itself as a “one-stop shop” for efficient hybrid and range-extender engines—bridging the gap between today’s realities and tomorrow’s electric ambitions.
I shared my view in the story:
“If you bet on every number in roulette, you’re going to win — but you won’t make any money because you’ve made too many bets.”
In today’s fragmented transition, automakers face a strategic dilemma — spreading investment too thin across ICE, hybrid, and EV platforms risks profitability. Outsourcing to ventures like Horse can free legacy players to focus capital and engineering resources on their long-term EV transition, while still serving near-term hybrid demand.
🔑 Key Takeaways
⚙️ Hybrid demand remains resilient: With EV adoption uneven across regions, efficient hybrid and EREV (extended-range EV) solutions are filling the gap.
🌍 Global collaboration model: Horse blends European engineering expertise with Chinese scale — an embodiment of glocalization in action.
🧩 Strategic focus is everything: OEMs that streamline portfolios and leverage ecosystem partners will be best positioned to thrive through the transition.
⏳ EV shift continues — but not linearly: While the long-term direction is clear, the journey will be phased, and multi-powertrain strategies will persist well into the 2030s.
This story underscores what we at Automobility Ltd have long emphasized — the transition to electrification is a marathon, not a sprint. Winners will adapt their strategies dynamically, leveraging partnerships and scale to stay profitable along the way.
New Rules Could Force Tesla to Redesign Its Door Handles. That’s Harder Than It Sounds
Wired, October 13
🚪 China Sets the Standard — Again 🇨🇳⚙️
Tesla’s retractable door handles once symbolized futuristic design — sleek, digital, and aerodynamic. But as WIRED reports, they’ve now become the subject of safety investigations in the U.S. and lawsuits over trapped passengers.
Now, China is stepping in with new rules requiring mechanical door handles operable without tools — a move that could reshape global car design.
“This is a classic example of China setting the guardrails early: protecting consumers while quietly shaping global design standards.”
— Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility Ltd, quoted in WIRED
From EV batteries to autonomous driving and now even door handles, China is again leading not just in speed of innovation — but in defining the rules of the game.
🔗 Read the full story in WIRED:
The Chinese Billionaire Whose Robots and Cars Should Worry Detroit—and Silicon Valley
The Information, October 4
🚀 XPENG’s leap from EVs to flying cars shows just how fast China’s innovators are redefining the boundaries of mobility.
As I shared with The Information , XPeng’s “flying minivan” is dead serious — not just as a product, but as a signal of intent. It commands attention, demonstrates real engineering depth, and captures the imagination of a market where ambition meets execution.
With affordable EVs like the Mona, luxury models like the P7, and ventures into robotics and aerial mobility, XPeng reflects how China’s auto industry has become the epicenter of global innovation — where cool ideas get commercialized at scale.
🔗 Read the full article:
“The Chinese Flying Car Company That Should Worry Detroit—and Silicon Valley” by Steve LeVine
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/chinese-flying-car-company-worry-detroit-silicon-valley

About Bill Russo
Bill is a contributing author to the book Selling to China: Stories of Success, Failure, and Constant Change (2023), where he describes how China has become the most commercially innovative place to do business in the world’s auto industry – and why those hoping to compete globally must continue to be in the market.
About Automobility
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